Will ICE Cocoa hit $10,000/mt before June 30?
Settlement: ICE Cocoa front-month official close.
Supply-Chain Sentiment
By Participant
ICE Cocoa
Supply & Demand Balance
Cocoa is in the grip of a historic supply crisis. The global deficit has widened to 478K mt — the largest in decades — as both Ivory Coast and Ghana continue to disappoint. Swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) has devastated mature tree stock across West Africa, and replanting programs are years from bearing fruit. Certified exchange stocks are at 20-year lows. The question is not whether the market is tight — it is — but whether $10,000/mt triggers enough demand destruction to rebalance.
Supply — 4,520.0 (-3.4% YoY)
CSSVD impact; aging trees; smallholder underinvestment
Cocobod struggling with funding; smuggling to Ivory Coast
The bright spot — expanding fine-flavor production
Demand — 4,998.0 (-0.6% YoY)
Some demand destruction at current prices
Indonesian and Malaysian processing growing
Stocks & Inventory
Trade Flows
| Route | Volume | Prior Yr | YoY | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivory Coast→EU | 820.0 | 890.0 | -7.9% | ↓ |
| Ghana→EU | 280.0 | 320.0 | -12.5% | ↓ |
| Ecuador→US | 145.0 | 120.0 | +20.8% | ↑ |
| Ivory Coast→Asia | 340.0 | 310.0 | +9.7% | ↑ |
Price Drivers
CSSVD has destroyed an estimated 15-20% of Ivorian and Ghanaian mature tree stock
ICE certified stocks at 1.48M bags — lowest since 2005
EU grindings down 2.8% — chocolate reformulation and shrinkflation underway
Ecuador adding 40K mt/yr but can't offset West African losses
Non-commercial net long at 42K lots — profit-taking risk above $9,000
Market Structure — Forward Curve
Extreme backwardation — May/Jul spread at $380/mt. The physical market is screaming for nearby supply. Contango only appears past December.
Recent Developments
Seasonal Patterns
- West African mid-crop (Apr–Sep) arrivals are the next major supply data point
- April: Ivory Coast mid-crop arrivals begin — early pace is a bellwether
- European Q1 grinding data released in April — key for demand assessment
- Certified stock monitoring: any further drawdown is explosive for prices
Trade
Settlement: ICE Cocoa front-month official close.