Will ICE Arabica break $3.00/lb before April 30?
Settlement: ICE Arabica Coffee 'C' futures official close.
Supply-Chain Sentiment
By Participant
ICE Arabica Coffee 'C'
Supply & Demand Balance
The Arabica market is finely balanced. Brazil's 2025/26 off-cycle crop is expected around 38M bags — below the 42M on-cycle year prior. Colombian output has stabilized near 12M bags after La Niña disruptions. The $3.00/lb level remains a key battleground: fund positioning is near record length, but the physical market is offering some resistance as origin selling picks up above $2.85.
Supply — 97.5 (-3.7% YoY)
Off-cycle year; Minas Gerais yields below trend
Recovery from La Niña-affected prior crop
Leaf rust impact lingering
Demand — 101.8 (+1.3% YoY)
Some substitution to Robusta at these prices
Specialty segment relatively price-inelastic
Stocks & Inventory
Trade Flows
| Route | Volume | Prior Yr | YoY | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil→EU | 18.4 | 20.1 | -8.5% | ↓ |
| Colombia→US | 4.8 | 4.5 | +6.7% | ↑ |
| Ethiopia→Asia | 2.6 | 2.3 | +13.0% | ↑ |
| Honduras→EU | 3.2 | 3.5 | -8.6% | ↓ |
Price Drivers
38M bags vs. 42M on-cycle — structural 10% supply reduction
Managed money net long at 68K lots — crowded trade risk
Brazilian cooperatives actively hedging forward at current levels
Real at 5.85/USD incentivizes Brazilian selling in local terms
Some European roasters reducing Arabica in blends
Market Structure — Forward Curve
Moderate backwardation with May/Jul at 2.5¢ carry. Less extreme than Robusta, reflecting better stock availability.
Recent Developments
Seasonal Patterns
- Brazilian Arabica harvest begins in May — pre-harvest rally often peaks in March/April
- Colombian mitaca (fly) crop arrives Apr–Jun, adding nearby supply
- CFTC positioning data released Fridays — key for gauging fund exposure
Trade
Settlement: ICE Arabica Coffee 'C' futures official close.