Will ICE Robusta Coffee close above $4,200 by May 31?
Settlement: Intercontinental Exchange Robusta futures official close.
Supply-Chain Sentiment
By Participant
ICE Robusta Coffee
Supply & Demand Balance
The global Robusta balance has swung into a structural deficit for the second consecutive season. Vietnam's 2025/26 crop is tracking 10-12% below the 5-year average due to delayed rains during the flowering period and aging tree stock. Meanwhile, demand for Robusta has surged as roasters substitute away from expensive Arabica. ICE-certified stocks sit at multi-decade lows of 3,200 lots, leaving the market acutely vulnerable to any further supply disappointment.
Supply — 73.2 (-4.7% YoY)
Delayed rains hit flowering; aging tree stock reducing yields
Espírito Santo crop slightly above average
Sumatra output down on El Niño tail effects
Karnataka crop near trend
Expanding acreage starting to bear fruit
Demand — 77.5 (+3.5% YoY)
Robusta share in blends rising to cut costs
China, South Korea, ASEAN driving growth
Stocks & Inventory
Trade Flows
| Route | Volume | Prior Yr | YoY | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam→EU | 14.2 | 16.1 | -11.8% | ↓ |
| Vietnam→Japan | 2.1 | 2.3 | -8.7% | ↓ |
| Brazil→EU | 8.4 | 7.6 | +10.5% | ↑ |
| Indonesia→US | 2.8 | 3.1 | -9.7% | ↓ |
| Uganda→EU | 3.2 | 2.9 | +10.3% | ↑ |
Price Drivers
26.5M bags vs. 5-yr avg of 29.5M — the single largest driver of the current rally
At 3,200 lots (192K bags), the lowest since 2001. Delivery squeeze risk is real
With Arabica above $2.80/lb, roasters shifting blend ratios toward Robusta
Above-average Espírito Santo crop provides some offset
Container rates from HCMC elevated, adding $50-80/mt to delivered cost
Managed money net long at record levels — vulnerability to liquidation
Market Structure — Forward Curve
Steep backwardation reflects acute nearby tightness. May/Jul spread at $85/mt — a signal that physical traders are scrambling for prompt supply.
Recent Developments
Seasonal Patterns
- Vietnam main crop harvest runs Oct–Feb; we are past peak shipment period
- Mar–May is the inter-crop gap when Vietnamese supply thins out
- Brazilian Conilon harvest begins May — new supply won't arrive until June
- London terminal market historically sees volatility spikes in Q1
Trade
Settlement: Intercontinental Exchange Robusta futures official close.