Will CBOT Corn close above $4.50 by April 30?
Settlement: CBOT Corn front-month official close.
Supply-Chain Sentiment
By Participant
CBOT Corn
Supply & Demand Balance
The global corn balance is moderately comfortable but not burdensome. US ending stocks at 1.54B bu are adequate but below the 5-year average. Brazil's safrinha (second) crop — which accounts for 75% of total output — is entering its critical development window. Ethanol grind remains supportive, but large Argentine and Brazilian supplies cap upside. The $4.50 level represents a tug-of-war between US domestic tightness and South American abundance.
Supply — 1,224.0 (+1.0% YoY)
Safrinha crop in critical development window
Favorable growing conditions
Demand — 1,206.0 (+1.3% YoY)
Ethanol margins supportive
Stocks & Inventory
Trade Flows
| Route | Volume | Prior Yr | YoY | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US→Mexico | 19.2 | 18.5 | +3.8% | ↑ |
| Brazil→Asia | 34.0 | 30.5 | +11.5% | ↑ |
| Argentina→Asia | 18.0 | 15.5 | +16.1% | ↑ |
| Ukraine→EU | 12.0 | 13.5 | -11.1% | ↓ |
Price Drivers
Weekly grind at 1.08M bbl/day — above year-ago and supporting corn offtake
Apr–May is critical for Mato Grosso safrinha; any dry spell is market-moving
52M mt crop with aggressive FOB pricing
Expected 92M+ acres would ensure another large US crop
Market Structure — Forward Curve
Modest contango. May/Jul at -6¢ — adequate nearby supply, no carry crunch.
Recent Developments
Seasonal Patterns
- March/April: safrinha development in Brazil is the key swing factor
- March 31: USDA Prospective Plantings — sets the tone for new-crop US
- US export pace typically slows in spring as South America dominates
Trade
Settlement: CBOT Corn front-month official close.