Will Henry Hub Natural Gas trade above $3.00 before June 1?
Settlement: NYMEX Henry Hub front-month official close.
Supply-Chain Sentiment
By Participant
NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas
Supply & Demand Balance
Henry Hub is in a structural transition. New LNG export capacity (Plaquemines T1, Golden Pass T1) is adding 3.5+ Bcf/d of incremental demand by mid-2026 — a step-change in the US gas balance. Meanwhile, associated gas growth from the Permian has slowed as oil drilling plateaus. Storage exited winter at 1,750 Bcf — 12% below the 5-year average — setting up a tighter-than-normal injection season. The $3.00 level hinges on whether LNG feedgas demand ramps as fast as expected.
Supply — 104.5 (+0.7% YoY)
Appalachian output flat; Haynesville recovering
Slowing as oil rigs plateau
Demand — 106.2 (+3.0% YoY)
Coal retirements driving structural gas demand growth
Plaquemines T1 and Golden Pass T1 ramping up
Trade Flows
| Route | Volume | Prior Yr | YoY | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Gulf Coast→Europe (LNG) | 7.2 | 6.5 | +10.8% | ↑ |
| US Gulf Coast→Asia (LNG) | 5.8 | 4.8 | +20.8% | ↑ |
| Canada→US (pipe) | 3.3 | 3.0 | +10.0% | ↑ |
| US→Mexico (pipe) | 5.3 | 5.9 | -10.2% | ↓ |
Price Drivers
Plaquemines + Golden Pass adding 3.5+ Bcf/d — structural demand shift
End-of-winter storage at 1,750 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg of 1,980 Bcf
Producers reluctant to add rigs below $3.00 — self-correcting
Summer cooling demand is the wildcard — hot summer = $3.50+, mild = $2.50
15 GW of coal retirements in 2025-26 adding baseload gas demand
Market Structure — Forward Curve
Summer strip at $3.05 vs. spot $2.68 — market expects tightening as LNG capacity ramps. Oct/Nov at $3.35.
Recent Developments
Seasonal Patterns
- Injection season runs April–October; the rate of injection determines Nov pricing
- Summer cooling demand typically peaks July–August
- EIA weekly storage report (Thursdays) is the key weekly catalyst
- Hurricane season (June–Nov) can disrupt Gulf of Mexico production
Trade
Settlement: NYMEX Henry Hub front-month official close.