Will CBOT Soybeans trade below $11.80 this week?
Settlement: CBOT Soybean front-month intraday low.
Supply-Chain Sentiment
By Participant
CBOT Soybeans
Supply & Demand Balance
Global soybean supply is abundant. Brazil is harvesting a record 170M mt crop — 8% above the prior year — which is pressuring CBOT prices toward the $11.80 support level. US export competitiveness has eroded as Brazilian offers undercut US Gulf by 40-50¢/bu. Chinese crush margins are negative, creating demand-side headwinds. However, US old-crop stocks are relatively tight at 210M bu, providing a floor under nearby futures.
Supply — 419.5 (+6.1% YoY)
Record crop; Mato Grosso yields exceeding expectations
Recovery from prior-year drought
Demand — 403.2 (+3.3% YoY)
Negative crush margins tempering buying pace
Renewable diesel demand supporting crush
Stocks & Inventory
Trade Flows
| Route | Volume | Prior Yr | YoY | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil→China | 72.0 | 65.5 | +9.9% | ↑ |
| US→China | 25.0 | 27.5 | -9.1% | ↓ |
| Argentina→China | 5.5 | 4.8 | +14.6% | ↑ |
| US→EU | 4.2 | 4.5 | -6.7% | ↓ |
Price Drivers
170M mt harvest flooding world market; basis offers from Paranaguá at steep discounts
Soymeal values depressed; crushers deferring purchases
USDA stocks at 210M bu — not burdensome, providing nearby support
USDA Prospective Plantings (Mar 31) expected to show 85M+ acres
US soybean oil demand supported by RD expansion
Market Structure — Forward Curve
Full carry market. May/Jul spread at -12¢ — commercials paying to store. No urgency for nearby supply.
Recent Developments
Seasonal Patterns
- Brazilian harvest hits peak pace in March — massive supply hitting export channels
- US export window closes as Brazilian beans dominate from April onward
- USDA Prospective Plantings report on March 31 is the next major catalyst
- Typically a seasonal low in soybean prices occurs in Sept/Oct at US harvest
Trade
Settlement: CBOT Soybean front-month intraday low.