Will ICE Sugar No. 11 close above 22¢/lb by April 30?
Settlement: ICE Sugar No. 11 front-month official close.
Supply-Chain Sentiment
By Participant
ICE Sugar No. 11
Supply & Demand Balance
The global sugar balance has flipped to a modest surplus of 2.8M mt after two deficit years, primarily on a bumper Indian crop and record Brazilian Center-South production. However, Brazil's ethanol parity at ~21.5¢/lb provides a floor — when prices dip below this level, mills divert cane to ethanol, reducing sugar output. The 22¢ level sits right at the ethanol-parity battleground, making it the most contested level in the market.
Supply — 185.2 (+4.2% YoY)
Record cane yield; 49% sugar allocation
UP and Maharashtra bumper crop; ethanol diversion at 6M mt
Sharp recovery from El Niño-affected prior crop
Demand — 182.4 (+1.2% YoY)
Growing import demand
Stocks & Inventory
Trade Flows
| Route | Volume | Prior Yr | YoY | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil→China | 6.5 | 5.2 | +25.0% | ↑ |
| Brazil→India | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | → |
| Thailand→Indonesia | 2.8 | 2.2 | +27.3% | ↑ |
| India→World (exports) | 4.0 | 2.5 | +60.0% | ↑ |
Price Drivers
At ~21.5¢/lb, Brazilian mills switch from sugar to ethanol — natural floor mechanism
Govt. authorized 4M mt exports — first major export program in 2 years
10.2M mt vs. 8.5M mt — El Niño recovery adding significant supply
Sugar share at 49% — any shift toward ethanol reduces sugar supply rapidly
Weak Real at 5.85 incentivizes Brazilian exports at lower world prices
Market Structure — Forward Curve
Mild contango — May/Jul at -0.25¢. Adequate prompt supply but limited downside given ethanol parity floor.
Recent Developments
Seasonal Patterns
- Brazil CS crush begins April — ramp-up pace sets the tone for global supply
- Indian export window is Oct–Sep; authorized quota must ship by September
- Thai crush season ends in April — final output data in May
- Q2 is when Brazilian production becomes the dominant price driver
Trade
Settlement: ICE Sugar No. 11 front-month official close.